Indicators: Multipliers & Estimates

This page explains how to read the informational indicators shown in the app, such as multipliers and estimated odds.

What The Indicators Mean

Multipliers: An estimate of the payout you might receive, calculated from the current distribution of stakes. An outcome with fewer stakes has a higher potential multiplier. This multiplier represents the the increase to the APR you would earn if you lent or staked your funds directly in Aave or other lending platforms.
Odds/Probability: An alternative way to represent the likelihood of an outcome, inferred from the staking distribution.
APR/APY Estimates: In some markets, we may show an estimated annualized return. This is a directional guide and not a guaranteed rate. The APR/APY displayed represents the base lending rate from platforms like Aave. Your final returns combine this relatively stable base APR with a multiplier based on the odds distribution. The odds can vary more significantly based on user perceptions and staking patterns. As a reference, you can check Aave's reserve overview to see the current USDC lending rates on Base.

Indicators are Estimates: All indicators are dynamic and change as more users place stakes. They are for informational purposes only.
The Final Multiplier: The multiplier that determines your payout is the one calculated at the moment the pool closes (e.g., at match start). This may differ from the estimate you saw when you placed your stake.
Staking Early: In No-Loss markets, staking earlier accrues more time-weighted pool shares, which increases your portion of the final yield if you win.
The Source of Truth: Final payouts are determined exclusively by the on-chain smart contracts. For rules and timing, refer to the Market Rules & Resolution guide.

Use indicators to compare the relative popularity of outcomes, not as a promise of a specific return.
For a detailed explanation of the mechanics behind payouts, see our How No-Loss Works guide.