How No-Loss Prediction Works
This page explains Legend's no-loss prediction model, the end-to-end flow, mechanics, and what to expect at claim.
Core Principles
- Principal protected: your stake is returned on both winning and non-winning selections
- Yield redistribution: the yield generated during the lockup is shared among winners; there is no house counterparty
- Market-driven indicators: multipliers and odds are informational estimates; final payouts follow contract logic
- On-chain transparency: smart contracts on Base; outcomes based on official league publications
- Short, event-based lockups: funds are committed until event resolution and protocol withdrawals complete
End-to-End Flow
- Connect wallet on Base
- Choose a No-loss prediction market
- Enter a USDC stake for one outcomes
- Confirm the transaction in your wallet
- Wait for event resolution and protocol withdrawal processing
- Claim your principal and any share of yield, then optionally restake
Mechanics (Simple)
- During the lockup, pooled stakes are supplied to supported protocols (e.g., Aave) to generate yield
- While the pool is open, each active stake accrues pool shares over time proportional to amount × time
- After the outcome is declared, the total pool yield is split pro rata among the winning time‑weighted stake only
- Your yield share is proportional to your fraction of the winning time‑weighted side
Formula (informational)
- yourTimeWeightedStake = ∫(stakeAmount) dt over the pool‑open window you were staked
- totalPoolYieldNet = totalPoolYieldGross − platformFees
- shareOfYield = (yourTimeWeightedStake / totalWinningTimeWeightedStake) × totalPoolYieldNet
- yourPayout = yourPrincipal + shareOfYield
Final Multiplier Lock
- The final multiplier used at payout is the snapshot at pool close (match start)
- The multiplier you saw when staking may differ; staking earlier accrues more time‑weighted shares
Claims & Timing
The process for claiming funds begins after the market has been resolved. For a detailed explanation of the settlement timeline and fees, please see our Claims & Settlement guide.
Data & Transparency
- Results are based on official league publications and recorded on‑chain
- Contracts are deployed on Base; links are shown in‑app for verification
Current Support
- Network: Base
- Token: USDC
- Markets: a limited set of soccer markets while we ramp
Required Disclaimers
- Principal returned on non‑winning selections; only yield is redistributed
- Indicators are estimates and may change; final payouts are determined by smart contracts
- Funds unlock after event resolution and any required protocol withdrawals